Drastic Increase in Flour and Edible Oil Prices Incoming

Due to the current global landscape, I predict there will be a substantial increase in flour and vegetable oils prices in the near future. While stockpiling during shortages would be unfavourable, I feel it would be wise to do so now. You may not like to hear it, but I think we are just in the eye of the tornado.

Poll Options

  • 0
    I will be stockpiling
  • 25
    I will not be stockpiling and am hoping for the best
  • 8
    I will be blaming Jacinda for everything and telling her to remove gst from food


  • +1

    Oil prices have already gone up lots. I bought 2L sunflower oil for $4.79 in Jan when Canola was $8/2L. Now even sunflower oil is almost $8/2L.

    ps. I know seed oils are not "healthy", but…

    • I think that's going to be just the tip of the iceberg, and I think it's a very, very, large iceberg

    • was going to comment the exact thing.
      Same with Canola oil. Was about $5 per 2L few months ago and it's nearly double the price.

    • Sunflower oil is the Ukrainian specialty.

  • I’m still getting through the Olero Martos ev olive oil I stocked up on when The Warehouse had a few issues with their discount codes and pricing 😎

    • lucky you >:(

      • It’s alright for the price. $9.99 for 1L. Buy 5 and a chupa chup for roughly $45.60. $9.13ish a bottle (or through The Market).

        • how does this compare with the 9.50 bottles at countdown?

          • @huffboy: Ooo not sure sorry. Are you referring to the Countdown branded ev olive oil?

            • @Wakrak: This one: https://www.countdown.co.nz/shop/productdetails?stockcode=69…

              Essentials Olive Oil

              1L $0.95 / 100mL

              Then 7/8% percent off with shopback/kiwiwallet.

              • +1

                @huffboy: I find the Olero Martos to be much much better quality compared to the essentials olive oil at Countdown or any generic Pams/Countdown olive oil brand. They actually come from a very well-known olive oil producer region in Italy, and have been impressed that they are selling it for very cheap price (basically the same as the essentials olive oil - or even cheaper if you get it through TheMarket with the $10 off coupon)

        • when you bought it, did you get it at this price or cheaper?

          • @justaddwater: Cheaper because there were glitches in the system at the time which have since been fixed.

            • @Wakrak: Very good. Would've been a nice thing to stock up on.

              Will visit in store they have the small bottle in stock

              • +1

                @justaddwater: I believe the small bottle differs from the large one. Small says pure olive oil, but doesn't mention anything about being cold pressed or extra virgin. Likely meaning it is therefore not. For the same price, I don't know why you wouldn't go with the larger one.

  • +1

    You missed an option: I am quietly stockpiling essentials but wouldn't admit as much if asked.

    Removing GST isn't going to mean the difference between affordable and not affordable for low to middle income families in the coming year or two. Everything will be unaffordable. But yes, I'll blame Jacinda (specifically her lavishly over-spending yet heinously under-delivering caucus) for painting most of low to middle NZ into a corner.

    Yep, the iceberg analogy is apt, and our captain has been asleep at the helm (or under duress from party members with agendas). Our household has a stable 6 figure income and in my estimation it'll be tight but we'll make it through the coming few years. I have no idea how others in the same boat but earning less will manage though :(

  • Can you stockpile flour? I think flour doesn't have a long expiry date and you will find weevils inside it?

    • Anything "refined", eg. white rice, white (plain) flour can be kept reasonably long if stored properly (airtight containers, cool, dry, etc). Things like brown rice, wholemeal flour, etc, will go rancid, but they can still be stored for months if frozen.

      But I'm not sure about stockpiling (I imagine it's sacks and sacks of everything)…haha

      • Uh oh. I need to check my brown flour

  • -2

    Ardern is a terrible PM and is responsible for a lot of problems facing NZ, but removing GST from food or from anything really is poor policy. Reducing income tax rates is much more effective and efficient.

    • +4

      I agree, but i feel they don't need to reduce income tax rates but re-adjust to the changing average income. Shift the tax bands.

      • Agreed. I don't follow politics much but when Luxon mentioned something about the squeezed middle class, it really hit the nail on the head! Tax brackets need changing.

      • At the very least they should be inflation adjusted. They haven't budged in over 10 yrs IIRC. This would be an easy win to help out lower and middle class families feeling the pinch.

  • +1

    I understand sunflower oils and wheat based products.
    But there are many alternatives for the oils. I've found it very easy to reduce or stop using them. Air fryer really helps.
    Olive Oil, coconut oil etc aren't produced in the countries directly affected by the war.
    Heck we even make some good quality olive and avocado oils ourselves
    Will those increase just on a supply and demand basis?

    • Will those increase just on a supply and demand basis?


      The big concern is countries blocking exports to keep for themselves.

      If we are in an equal supply and demand, the loss of any production will not be softened for the consumer. Until supply can match demand again, the prices for all oils will be high.

  • +3

    I'm not 100% certain of this but I reckon I could probably survive weeks even months without vegetable oil or flour. I mean sure it would be a struggle eating unbattered hot dogs and pineapple rings at first, but with time I think I could adjust and cope.

    • +1

      Of course you could. This is less about survival, more about anticipating to decide the best choice of action. If you want to live without the oil and flour, feel free, but if you want to still have them without paying what the future holds, then taking action now would be smart. This is a train heading towards us, and those who do not jump off the tracks will be hit with the potential of no flour or oil, whether you mind being hit is your own choice. Perhaps in a different light this could be a good thing, reducing the world's consumption of processed oils and simple carbs.

      • +4

        Jesus that's the last time I try to have a bit of lighthearted fun in this depressing thread.

        • +1

          You're just not coping well mate, however there is an easy way for you to stock up.

          Batter your hotdogs now, then do it again tomorrow (same hotdogs), rinse and repeat for a few days, and voila! You'll have stockpiled plenty of healthy snacks.

          I did this myself a few years ago. The only problem is you have to wait for a few hours after rinsing, else the batter doesn't stick the second and subsequent times around.

          Post photos to let us see how you go.


          • +1

            @Alan6984: I would do that Alan but the nuns at the orphanage where I was raised, well not all of them just Sister Euphemism, she used to tell all us boys that a man should never batter his own hot dog because God is always watching.

            • @[Deactivated]: Really? I have a … friend who wants to know if that is really truly true?

              What happens to my friend if he batters his hotdog every day for a few days in a row, and did this more than once? Will he get to heaven?

              • @Alan6984: I don't think this forum about the scary prospect of a vegetable oil shortage is the right place for you to bring up your "friends" obsession that clearly has nothing to do with tasty battered hotdogs. Get your mind out of the gutter Alan.

  • Another thing to watch out for is Palm oil. Indonesia, the biggest edible oil exporter, just banned exports to control prices. A lot of cheap processed food and other essentials uses palm oil.

    • Yep, I did mention it here and it was part of the reason I started this tread to warn everyone, since it shows how dire the situation is and could become. Main concern is that while palm oil isn't used much in households, it makes up a lot of the global edible oil supply and Indonesia is the biggest producer so this sudden cut in the supply will push all oil prices up as manufactures will have to compensate with other oils. The fear is that this will create a domino effect and the countries producing will all keep it for themselves.

  • +1

    Supermarkets worldwide ask shoppers to limit cooking oil purchases as war disrupts supply (Alert: Pay to read)

    • +2

      Several British supermarkets have joined other chains around the world in asking shoppers to limit their cooking oil purchases, as supplies dwindle and prices rise.

      First the coronavirus, then the war. Just as the pandemic caused shortages of essential items, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted important food supplies, driving up prices of staples like cooking oil in supermarkets around the world.

      Before the war, Ukraine was the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil. The conflict has now paralysed harvests and left many nations with limited stocks of edible oil and soaring prices for what's left β€” worsening a food crisis in East Africa and leading to export restrictions in Indonesia. Some shoppers, most recently in Britain, are being limited in their purchases of cooking oils, as supermarkets and restaurants adjust to the climbing costs.
      "Supply chains, already disrupted by Covid-19, have been further complicated by the war in Ukraine, which is causing shortages in some ingredients like sunflower oil and raising the price of substitute ingredients," said Kate Halliwell, the chief scientific officer of the Food and Drink Federation, which represents Britain's largest manufacturing sector.
      "Manufacturers are doing all they can to keep costs down, but inevitably some will have to be passed to consumers," she said.
      Tom Holder, a British Retail Consortium spokesperson, said retailers have imposed limits on customers after the war disrupted supplies.
      Supermarket chains in Spain, Greece, Turkey, Belgium and other nations have limited cooking oil purchases, sometimes describing the moves as precautions in the face of increased demand, according to local news outlets. At Tesco, a major British chain, customers can buy up to three bottles of edible oil, "so that everyone can get what they need," as a flyer posted on a shelf says.

      Europe's breadbasket
      Russia's invasion has devastated Ukrainian cities, homes, hospitals and schools β€” as well as the nation's agriculture, preventing harvests and destroying granaries and crops in a region known as Europe's breadbasket. Ukraine and Russia together had accounted for about 75 per cent of sunflower seed oil, a primary cooking oil in many parts of the world.
      But planting, output and trade have dwindled, and commodity prices have risen sharply, the World Trade Organisation said in April. The United Nations' food agency has reported sharp increases in the prices of vegetable oils, influenced by the war and persistent drought in places like Brazil and Argentina.
      Business owners in Britain have hesitated to pass on the costs to customers, racing to find alternative oils as prices rise.

      Harry Niazi, who owns the Famous Olley's Fish Experience, a London restaurant, said the cost of a 20-litre jug of sunflower oil has jumped to 42.50 pounds, about $82, from around 22 pounds, or $42.
      "It's very, very scary, and I don't know how the fish and chips industry is going to cope. I really don't," he told The Associated Press.


      In Britain, which imported 83 per cent of its sunflower oil from Ukraine, shoppers are being asked to show restraint, and flexibility. Like Tesco, the supermarket Morrisons has introduced a cap, limiting shoppers to two bottles. Another, Waitrose, is working with suppliers to increase orders of other oils.
      The disruption was so jarring that Britain's food standards agencies said in March that manufacturers were replacing cooking oils with rapeseed oil so "urgently" that some had been unable to change their labels as quickly.
      That prompted Emily Miles, the CEO of the Food Standards Agency, which covers England, Wales and Northern Ireland, to assure consumers that the allergy risk of rapeseed oil was "very low" and that they were working to ensure foods manufactured with sunflower oil, including breaded fish, frozen vegetables and chips, remained on sale.
      "Food businesses are reporting that UK supplies of sunflower oil are likely to run out in a few weeks with some businesses already experiencing severe difficulties," the agency said in a statement.
      Companies have also tried to adjust with what's available, reformulating recipes with palm or soybean oils. Rapeseed oil, mostly intended for the biodiesel market, has been redirected to food use, according to a report in March by Fediol, a European industry group.
      Spending on sunflower oil, Britain's most popular choice for frying, and vegetable oil rose 27 per cent and 40 per cent respectively, compared with the same period in 2021, according to figures supplied by Kantar, a British firm that studies consumer behaviour.
      Fraser McKevitt, an analyst at Kantar, said customers stocked up, aware of possible shortages and higher prices, before supermarkets started to introduce restrictions in April.
      Pivoting from sunflower oil
      Halliwell said one-quarter of the sunflower oil on the global market has "vanished" in the wake of the sanctions imposed on Russia, which cut off its industries from many markets. Adding to the uncertainty is how much sunflower seed was planted in Ukraine and how much harvest can make it to markets, she said.
      In the United States, the war has put more pressure on domestic soybean producers trying to make up for shortfalls, said Robb MacKie, the president of the American Bakers Association.
      "Two of the three major edible oils export markets used by bakers are in complete turmoil β€” sunflower oil from Ukraine and palm oil from Indonesia," he said, calling for federal action to shift soybean oil stocks back into food instead of being diverted to biodiesel production.
      "The disruption of this ubiquitous ingredient will cause further strain on America's food system," he said.


      And price increases "will exacerbate the challenging cost environment that US companies have been contending with for the last year," Katie Denis, a spokesperson for the Consumer Brands Association, said in a report in April.
      Other countries are feeling the pinch: Ukraine's primary export markets last year included India, China, the Middle East and North Africa, and the European Union, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Rema 1000, a Norwegian supermarket chain, is considering a return to selling palm oil, which it had previously banned for environmental reasons, and its Danish affiliate has limited shoppers to three bottles of oil.
      But that approach could be aggravated by an Indonesian ban on its palm oil exports, weather-related global shortages and the tightness in the market from the war, Oil World, an industry analyst group, said in a report Wednesday.
      In Norway, Christopher Harlem, the CEO of the importer Harlem Food, said some European companies were meeting demand β€” for now β€” by dipping into their stored supplies of sunflower oil.
      "At some point, more oil will not be added to the storages," he said. "I cannot get hold of any sunflower oil at the moment, not at any volume that counts."
      He added, "I think we have to face there is an upcoming shortage ahead, without doubt, and start thinking about adaptation and replacements."
      This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

      Written by: Christine Hauser
      Β© 2022 THE NEW YORK TIMES

      How are they taking a free article from the new york times and putting it behind a paywall?

  • The company I work for is one of the largest palm oil users in the country. We are paying approx. double the historical averages on spot pricing and are hanging out for it to go down (it's not at present). Sunflower oil is a write off because 80% comes out of Ukraine. This affects all the other edible oils including soy which has had a shitty season in several key growing areas as well. Regression to the mean will come but may take a while. Most other food commodities are running high at the moment too if nothing else because of shipping. Retailers are trying to hold off raising price but it will come because suppliers cannot absorb for that length of time.

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